Real-Life Decision Making
Becoming a seismologist was a natural choice for you. You've been interested in the movement of the Earth since you were a child. It's amazing to you how something as "solid" as the Earth can move.
You've been working as a seismologist for nine years, during which time you've been given the opportunity to study the Earth's movements closely from different locations around the world. But about a year ago, you went to work for a petroleum company. Since then, the only traveling you've done is to drilling sites.
However, that's about to change. You've been asked to attend an oil conference in Saudi Arabia. While there, you're supposed to talk to a group of potential investors about the drilling sites in America and Canada that this Arabic company has chosen.
What's holding the investors back from granting more money to your company is their fear that several of the future drilling sites your company has chosen will not be stable for long. In fact, one of the sites is located on the San Andreas fault line, and the investors are afraid that drilling could cause an earthquake.
Your job is to go to the Middle East and reassure the investors that the drilling that your company has planned will cause no damage. But the truth is, you're not sure that the drilling won't cause an earthquake. On the other hand, you're not sure that it will.
There is no study that will conclusively predict what may or may not happen, and your company isn't willing to put the money into the research necessary to find out if the answer can be determined without actually trying it.
You can go to the meeting and tell the truth, which is that you don't know. Or you can go to the meeting and tell the investors that there is no harm in the planned drilling. If you do that, and then later a problem develops, the blame will probably fall on your head.
If you tell the investors there is no problem, then the drilling will go forward, and there may or may not be repercussions from the drilling. But if you tell the investors the truth, you'll most likely lose your job.
What do you do?