Real-Life Decision Making
Volcanologists take the pulse of a volcano. Then they try to make a prediction of what will happen with the volcano next.
"If you're wrong, the consequences can be huge. If you have a much more explosive eruption than you predict, lots of people could be killed," says Cathy Hickson, a volcanologist.
"The decisions that are made when you're monitoring are very difficult. They're based on an inexact science, even though we know more about how volcanoes work than we did 15 to 20 years ago. You're integrating a number of different sciences and making your best guess as to what that volcano is going to do next."
You're a volcanologist working with a team of specialists to try to predict what the Galeras volcano is going to do next. Based on the team's extensive findings, you believe Galeras will have a major eruption, with the potential of killing hundreds of people in the area.
A year ago in the same area, a team of scientists gave a similar prediction, and the residents were evacuated for a six-month period, only to return when Galeras didn't erupt as predicted.
This time, in order to eliminate a second false alarm, two different groups of specialists have been called in to compare predictions.
The other group's interpretation of what's going to happen is totally different from yours. They don't believe there will be a major eruption, and they see no reason to evacuate the residents. You're familiar with the expertise of this group and trust their judgment.
The societal costs of evacuating area residents for an extended period of time are enormous, and you're being pressured to rethink your predictions.
However, lives are at stake.
What do you do?