Real-Life Decision Making -- Solution
You stick to your original predictions and recommend evacuation.
You're working with a group of qualified scientists, and you've made an educated prediction that Galeras will have a major eruption. For the safety of the people in the area, you recommend that they be evacuated for an undetermined amount of time, until it's deemed safe for them to return.
The public officials are not pleased with your decision because of the huge cost in evacuating the residents. They went through this same situation a year ago, and they don't like the idea of another false alarm.
The other team of scientists feels you're incorrect in your interpretations, and they're pressuring you to backtrack and change your mind, but you stand firm.
This is the real-life decision made by volcanologists, including Cathy Hickson.
"There are a number of classic cases where two groups of volcanologists have differed in their interpretation of exactly what's going to happen and the magnitude of the danger that is associated with the eruption. This has a direct bearing on the lives of people," says Hickson.
"In probably the most famous case, one group of scientists said there would not be a major eruption, and another group said there would be. The emergency managers in that area chose to evacuate the island, and you can imagine the impact of an evacuation on thousands of inhabitants for several months. The volcano did not have an explosive eruption and the people eventually moved back."
As a volcanologist, you must trust your own judgment and not be swayed. Remember: lives are at stake here, and you can't take any chances.
It's better to err on the side of safety than to lose lives.