Real-Life Decision Making -- Solution
You accept the other group's predictions and don't evacuate.
You've known the other group of scientists for years, and you trust their judgment. They collectively have had many years of experience dealing with active volcanoes, and their predictions are trustworthy.
So you back off and listen to their predictions, agreeing that you may be wrong in your assessment of the situation.
The political powers of the community are very pleased with your decision, since the residents won't be inconvenienced by another evacuation. Plus, they'll avoid the enormous costs associated with an evacuation.
However, as time goes on, you become more and more concerned about the situation. Your team's findings indicated a major eruption, and with each passing day, your worries escalate.
What if you've made the wrong decision? Lives could be lost, and you'd never forgive yourself.
"You have political people who have a particular agenda, and you have scientists who are trying to give the information to the best of their knowledge. It's a very difficult situation because you're dealing with the lives of people," notes volcanologist Cathy Hickson.
"Societal costs of moving residents for a couple of months or even years are enormous. These decisions have huge consequences," she says.
Wouldn't it have been better to go with your original decision and recommend that the area residents be evacuated? Even though the costs would be enormous, at least the residents would be safe.